There are several positive indicators in our local market:
- The number of sales increased in 2011.
- Fewer of these were foreclosures.
- Home values are stabilizing.
- Inventory of homes for sale is at a 7-year low; upward pressure on prices should follow.
In looking at the local real estate market statistics for last quarter of 2011, the thing jumps off the page: the low inventory of homes for sale. In December 2011 the months supply of inventory was the lowest we've seen since November 2005. Months supply of inventory is calculated by dividing the number of homes currently for sale by the number of homes that have sold in the prior month. In December, there were 3,439 homes, condos, and PUD's listed as active or accepting backup offers in Fresno Multiple Listing Service. In that same month there were 953 sales, which results in the calculation of 3.6 months supply of inventory.
Many economists use "months supply of inventory" as one measure for predicting if home values will appreciate. Most agree that an inventory of less than 3 months is an under-supply and could generate increased home values; also known as a seller's market. More than a 6 month's supply, a buyer's market, when home sellers may need to reduce their asking price to attract buyers. Best of all, between 3 and 6 months is considered a balanced market. With the exception of 2 months, the Fresno MLS has been in this territory since March 2009.
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